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July 16th Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver spot values are regaining some of the value they lost through Monday and Tuesday’s trading sessions, but are still a far cry from where they were a week ago. Janet Yellen is scheduled to make the second of two addresses to Congress today, though what she has to say will more than likely be none too different than what she had to say on Tuesday.

Generally speaking, there is a lack of any real markets-moving economic data on the slate this week, and that is not doing the precious metals market any favors. Platinum and palladium. after their 3-week long upward trend, are also trending lower this week, in line with gold and silver spot values.

Day 2 of Janet Yellen’s Address

Coming into this week, investors and market analysts alike were gearing up to hear some potentially groundbreaking news with regard to interest rates in the United States. With Janet Yellen, chairperson of the Federal Reserve, scheduled to make her semi-annual addresses to Congress yesterday and today, most thought that there was no way they weren’t going to hear some news with regard to if/when interest rates in the US would be risen.

Shortly after midday yesterday, that is exactly what investors received as they picked apart everything Ms. Yellen had to say to Congress. Not surprising at all was the fact that she once again reiterated the FOMC’s intentions of having Quantitative Easing completely done away with by this upcoming October. This news was taken in stride by the market due to the fact that it is already more or less common knowledge. Ms. Yellen went on to say that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. In addition to that, however, it was made clear that so long as the US employment sector continues to improve, interest rates may be risen sooner rather than later.

These statements were perceived as being mildly hawkish by the whole of the investing world and, in turn, had a somewhat negative affect on the precious metals market. Despite Yellen saying nothing definite about the future of US interest rates, her statements made it seem as though perhaps interest rates will be risen sooner than the market had originally anticipated.

Upbeat Chinese Data Aids Metals

Lightening the downward pressure being place on precious metals was some upbeat economic data stemming from China. Before US markets opened this morning, it was reported that China’s second-quarter GDP grew by 7.5% on an annualized basis. This news was seen as upbeat because most were not expecting to see year on year GDP growth exceed 7.4%.

This news prompted Asian equity markets to post some solid gains and even acted as an underlying bullish factor for the raw commodities market, which includes precious metals.

With so many geopolitical concerns making rounds, it is truly surprising that the market isn’t paying any closer attention. Foremost amongst these geopolitical happenings is the ongoing violence between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. As both sides trade rocket fire, with Israel’s being the only ones hitting their targets consistently, the civilian death toll is rising and the situation in general is deteriorating. We will keep an eye on any new developments from Gaza as they will assuredly have some sort of impact on the precious metals market. For now, however, risk-appetite is keeping the precious metals bears in complete control of the market.

July 9th Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver spot values are trading higher today thanks to some renewed safe-haven demand and other, chart-based buying. Up to this point this week, gold and silver have not fared particularly well, but they haven’t done particularly poorly either. Platinum and palladium, on the other hand, have been trading up for a majority of the week and are continuing to edge higher today.

The focal point for investors this week will be this afternoon’s release of the latest FOMC minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. Attention is being so closely paid to the release of today’s minutes in hopes of hearing more information on when the Fed plans on hiking interest rates in the United States.

Currencies Seen Improving Slowly

As a result of speculation with regard to the possible raising of interest rates prior to next year, the US Dollar was able to stop declining in value against the yen. The euro, however, continued along its upward trend against the USD.

If today’s minutes do dish out some news with regard to when rates will be risen, I expect the USD to turn things around and begin making noticeable gains. With that said, however, it is the expectation of many that today’s minutes will provide very little insight, if any, into when the Fed plans on making changes to interest rates.

US Equities Bounce Back From Early Week Losses

Yesterday saw most major stock markets in the United States trade in the red for a second day in a row. This generally downward price movement has spurred discussion with regard to whether or not we are on the verge of seeing a downward technical correction after stocks’ bullish run over the past few months. With two days’ worth of losses posted already this week, and a sub-par finish to last week, a lot of signs are pointing to US equity markets being on the verge of ticking downward. However, with some near-term momentum still on their side, equities will likely not be so quick to correct themselves lower.

More Violence In the Middle East Spurs Safe-Haven Demand

In the midst of all this talk about potentially rising interest rates in the US, it is intriguing to see gold, silver, platinum, and palladium continue to trend higher. Many market analysts are attributing today’s gains to outbreak of more violence in the Middle East.

Iraq and its civil war has been in and out of the news for the past 2 or 3 weeks now, but this time the market is focusing on violence happening in Israel, specifically on the Gaza Strip. As recently as a few days ago, Israel launched a violent offensive on the Gaza Strip and is threatening to ramp up its military action in the region in response to Palestinian rocket fire. The harsh rhetoric coming from both sides has a lot of investors worrying and, whenever worry abounds in the marketplace safe-haven demand will shortly follow. That is exactly what is happening now and will continue to happen so long as there are such widespread reports of violence in the Israel, Iraq, and Syria.

July 2nd Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver spot values are hovering around even today but are still feeling upside momentum. There are a few economic reports for investors to mull over today, but none is more important than the ADP employment report for June. Some light data was also reported today from Europe, but it didn’t really have much of an affect on the marketplace, at least not the precious metals market.

The ongoing violence in Iraq has faded out of the headlines for now, but is still on the minds of investors. Despite violence abounding throughout large parts of the country, the bloodshed is nothing like it was a week or more ago. US military advisers are now on the ground so I’m sure we will hear more about this developing civil war as more information is made public. Safe-haven demand for gold and silver stemming from the violence in Iraq has taken a bit of a step backwards, but is still a market factor at present.

Light Day of Economic Data, US Employment Report To Look Forward To

More downtrodden economic news from Europe was made public today in the form of April’s report on producer prices. The data showed that EU producer prices were down by a tenth of a percent in April and had fallen by a whole percentage point on an annual basis. This news only adds to a recent string of poor economic reports stemming from the European Union. With the European Central Bank scheduled to hold their monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday, it will be interesting to see if they have anything to say with respect to continuously falling price levels.

While most investors are anxiously awaiting Thursday’s release of the US employment report for June, today yielded the oft-overlooked ADP employment report. The report showed that more than 280,000 jobs were added to the economy in June, a number that handily beat market expectations. This upbeat report on the US employment sector did well to halt the progress of gold and silver spot values. Still, it is going to take more than an upbeat ADP report for precious metals’ current momentum to be undone.

Because traders from the United States will have the day off on Friday in order to celebrate the Independence Day holiday, this week will be shortened. Still, tomorrow is expected to bring with it plenty of economic data that will assuredly have some sort of impact on the precious metals market.

June 25th Midweek Gold Market Update

After moving upward for the past week or more, precious metals spot values are trading slightly lower on Wednesday as a result of profit-taking after recent gains. A quiet marketplace today has led investors who have made massive gains over the past 7 days or so to cash in on them by selling off now higher-valued gold and silver.

From an economic standpoint, there have been a number of reports made public, but the overwhelming majority have been a non-factor for the precious metals market. Instead, worries with regard to the EU economy and the Iraqi civil war are taking up the headlines and drawing a lot of investor attention away from any and all economic developments. After the FOMC meeting last week concluded with Janet Yellen holding fast to her belief that interest rates should remain low for the time being, investors flocked to precious metals and abandoned the riskier assets they have accrued over the past month or two.

Civil War In Iraq Intensifies As US Military Advisers Touch Down

The first US military advisers recently landed in Baghdad, though it is still unclear how their limited numbers are going to do much of anything when it comes to fighting of the ISIS rebels. ISIS has been seen advancing further southward into the depths of Iraq and have since fanned out as to make pinpointing their exact locations a near impossibility.

Safe-haven demand for gold and silver has been on the rise because of the violence and is looking more and more like it will stay elevated as no one has yet come up with a viable solution. Apart from the United States, very few other countries are willing to help out Iraq and the country is falling city by city. If something is not done quickly, ISIS will have taken over majority control of the country before too long. The US has since called upon Middle Eastern regional powers Iran and Turkey to help their Iraqi neighbors, but so far those calls have fallen upon deaf ears.

With few other major geopolitical developments to pay attention to, investors will continue to pick apart and mull over the situation in Iraq. What’s more, tensions are still high in Ukraine and the situation in that part of the world is also far from resolved. The country is now on the verge of bankruptcy and is unable to pay gas bills, something that has the rest of the world and Europe worrying.

June 18th Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver spot values are continuing to hover near even for a third consecutive day this week. Today saw the FOMC release a statement in the wake of their monthly policy meeting for June, but it ended up only having a marginal impact on the market as everything the committee had to say was more or less expected by the marketplace.

Investors’ attention continues to remain fixated on the ongoing regional issues in both Ukraine and Iraq as neither really looks like it is headed for a resolution anytime soon. Goth disputes are doing well to fuel safe-haven demand for gold and silver and are a large part of the reason why metals are continuing to hold steady over the last week or more.

Iraqi Civil War Threatens Stability of Nation And Region

For about a week or more now, the world has been paying more or less steady attention to what is happening in Iraq. Major news outlets have been reporting that an Islamic military group known as ISIS is currently wreaking havoc throughout much of Iraq, specifically northern Iraq.

An increased number of Iraqi soldiers have abandoned their posts and have sought refuge elsewhere after widespread reports of torture and decapitation surround stories of soldiers who have gone missing. ISIS is continuing its path of destruction further into Iraq’s south and will, within only a few days, be approaching the capital city of Baghdad. For these reasons and many more, Iraqi officials have called upon the United States to provide some sort of military assistance. The US responded and, albeit reluctantly, announced that they will be providing Iraq with a few hundred special operations troops as well as military advisers.

As this situation rages on, it is continuing to see precious metals spot values rise as a result of safe-haven demand. With no end in sight, it is becoming increasingly likely that both this situation and the ongoing natural gas dispute in Ukraine will continue to provide a buffer for precious metals; preventing them from falling too far from current price levels.

The FOMC announced today that it would continue with another $10 billion monthly reduction to the Quantitative Easing monetary policy. The market was widely expecting this announcement and did not really react too much to it. As such, gold and silver were and still are able to retain this morning’s marginal gains. As we head into the latter stages of the week it is clear to see that investors will continue to closely analyze the ongoing situations in Iraq and Ukraine.

 

June 11th Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver spot values have not done much of any moving today and are remaining planted as a result of any fresh fundamental inputs. This week has already proven to be inordinately quiet and has brought about little to no noteworthy economic or geopolitical happenings. Recent stock market rallies have driven a lot of interest away from safe-haven metals, something that has shown through recent price movement, or lack thereof.

The biggest piece of economic data due out this week, believe it or not, will come tomorrow in the form of the weekly jobless claims report from the United States. This report rarely has a major impact on the spot values of precious metals and there is no reason to believe that this time will be any different.

Frozen Gold, Silver Markets Make For Lackluster Week

To be brutally honest, there really isn’t all that much for investors or market analysts to talk about this week. Reactions to last week’s data and European Central Bank have gone by the wayside and the market simply doesn’t have any noteworthy news to preoccupy itself with.

The US Dollar as well as equity markets around the world have been doing well recently, and this is something that has, and will continue to, weigh on spot values. Even with the Dollar taking a small step backwards today, gold and silver are simply not strong enough to move forward. Many market analysts are labeling the precious metals market as being frozen currently, and I would have to agree with this sentiment. Now, precious metals investors are simply awaiting a catalyst to propel metals back into the minds of investors.

Earlier in the week, chart consolidation and short covering were both providing a mild boost for metals, but those two factors have also mostly gone by the wayside. As we look ahead to the last few days of the week, investors can expect to see much of the same barring any unexpected piece of economic data or unforeseen geopolitical happening.

June 4th Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are trading just slightly higher on Wednesday, pushed forward by some weaker than anticipated US employment data for May. With that said, it is clear to see that market bears are still in control, exhibited by the fact that spot gold has gained only a few dollars while spot silver is only up a few pennies. The investing world is being dealt a good bit of US economic data today, but the main focus for this week still remains tomorrow’s European Central Bank policy meeting for the month of May.

As has been the case for the past week or more, gold and silver spot values are being put under a lot of pressure. Not helping matters at all is the fact that the crisis in Ukraine has more or less disappeared from the market’s concern. While there is still plenty of unrest and violence happening throughout the eastern and southern parts of the country, investors are viewing matters as more of a regional issues as opposed to something the world should be paying attention to. Nonetheless, it will be important to keep an eye on the crisis as it always stands the possibility of getting out of hand for yet another time.

Weak US Economic Data Gives Gold, Silver Slight Boost

During most any other week, the United States’ employment data would be, by far, the most important piece of economic news making rounds this week. Unfortunately, however, the all-important European Central Bank meeting has filled that role during this 5-day trading session. Regardless, US jobs figures for May were released shortly after markets opened and came back a good bit weaker than what the market had been expecting.

Compared to the expected number of more than 210,000 jobs added in May, the report showed that only about 180,000 jobs were added to the US economy. The weaker than expected ADP employment report was a bullish factor for metals and is more than likely the reason that they have been able to make marginal gains thus far today. I am not expecting these small gains to stick around for long, but it is nice to see precious metals receive some respite from the last week or more of continuous losses.

Finally, rounding out the week this week is the European Central Bank’s monthly policy meeting for June. This meeting is important to investors every time it takes place, but none in recent history have been as highly anticipated as tomorrow’s. The reason for this is simple, most investors are expecting to hear the ECB announce future plans to implement new monetary stimulus measures. Due to rising and more severe deflationary pressures around Europe, the wider investing community has been calling upon the ECB to institute some sort of new monetary stimulus, the likes of which will help combat the deflating euro currency.

At this point it is still unclear as to whether new stimulus will actually be put into action or not, but that has not stopped investors from speculating what fresh stimulus might mean for the precious metals market. On one hand, there are those investors and traders who are under the impression that stimulus in any major economy will be a bullish underlying factor for raw commodities and thus, precious metals. On the other hand, however, there are those who see new stimulus measures putting pressure on the euro currency which will, in turn, likely give the US Dollar even more room to grow. If the Dollar picks up momentum it is more than likely that it will have an adverse affect on gold and silver spot values. Of course, this is all simply mere speculation and we will just have to wait until tomorrow to find out which of it, if any, is true.

May 28th Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are trading down for a second consecutive day this week, fueled by a more risk-on appetite exhibited by investors. Yesterday saw precious metals spot values trade down significantly after events over the weekend saw precious metals bears seize control of the market. Not helping the fortunes of precious metals at all is the fact that recent US economic data has been upbeat, thus driving up the value of the US Dollar.

Risk-On Attitude Putting A Dent In Demand For Precious Metals

In recent weeks, stock indexes from around the world have been on the rise, hitting multi-month or multi-year highs along the way. What’s more, the crisis in Ukraine is slowly but surely becoming more of a regional issue as opposed to a powder-keg the world is watching with bated breath. Over the weekend, Ukrainian voters took to the polls in order to vote for their first official president since Yanukovich was ousted a few months back.

With all this in mind, there are a number of investors who are growing increasingly convinced that the US economy is not growing at the rate many had anticipated it would. Because of this, many investors and market experts alike are calling into question the rate at which the Federal Reserve is tapering bond-buying, also referred to as Quantitative Easing. While the Fed has yet to allude that they might ease up on their tapering, some feel as though an easing in tapering is inevitable. As it stands, apprehensions with regard to the rate at which the US economy is growing are still an underlying bullish factor for metals, but are currently not doing anything to help precious metals.

Precious metals spot values are continuing to fall, but have stopped declining at such a rapid rate. At this point, gold is just about $50 above $1,200/ounce while silver is rapidly approaching an even $19/ounce. If things don’t turn around for metals in a hurry I fear that spot values will peg lower for the foreseeable future.

May 21st Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver spot values are edging lower in early trading on Wednesday as investors await the release of the latest FOMC minutes. This week, generally speaking, has been somewhat slow and lacking any new, important fundamental inputs.

The crisis in Ukraine is still being heavily watched by the investing community but has thus far stayed mostly out of the news this week. Earlier this week, Russian president Vladimir Putin called for troops stationed along the Ukrainian border to withdraw from their positions. Up until recently, the provocative Russian government was building up a strong military presence along the Ukrainian border for the sole purpose of putting pressure on the Ukrainian military. Now that the Russian military has since taken a step back, many believe that the Ukrainian military now has more leeway to more readily oust the pro-Russian rebels who have taken up post in much of southern and eastern Ukraine.

Investors Await All-Important FOMC Data

This week is not expected to emit a large quantity of US economic data, and for that reason today’s release of the FOMC minutes will be especially important to investors. Though there are no monetary policy changes expected to come as a result of the minutes, investors are always interested in what the United States’ central bank has to say about monetary policy and the economy in general. The likely outcome of the minutes’ release will more than likely be a reiteration of the Fed’s positive outlook on the US economy. It seems as though investors are already expecting the minutes to reiterate the Fed’s upbeat outlook on the US economy as equity prices are trading higher across the board in early trading.

Falling bond yields are becoming a periphery issue for investors who are concerned that the US economy is not nearly as strong as a lot of market analysts are claiming. Bond yields have long been a good way to determine the overall strength of an economy and, as such, it is important for investors to keep a close eye on any and all US Treasury bonds.

Apart from today’s FOMC minutes, there really isn’t all that much economic data on the slate for the rest of the week.

 

May 14th Midweek Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are both trading sharply higher in the early morning hours of Wednesday thanks to some short-covering by investors. There is a healthy amount of EU economic data already on the table and investors have just received word of the US PPI for April. For the first time in about a week or so spot gold is up above $1,300 while silver is only a few cents from once more breaking trough the $20/ounce threshold.

The crisis in Ukraine is still very much on the front burner but is being overshadowed by other factors as there haven’t been too many noteworthy events since the referendum vote that took place last Sunday. The vote, which many people believe to be completely and utterly rigged, showed that 90% of the Donetsk region of Ukraine would prefer to be independent. When I say “independent” I am essentially saying they would rather not be ruled by Kiev and instead be ruled by Moscow. It will be interesting to see what happens should Ukraine attempt to annex Donetsk like they did Crimea.

Economic Reports Abound On Wednesday

Before US markets opened today, the EU had already received its fair share of economic reports, most of which only further intensified concerns with regard to deflation across Europe. The first report was April’s EU industrial production numbers for the month of March. Contrary to the expectations of many, industrial production fell by about .3% in March and was down by one tenth of one percent year on year.

In Germany, it was reported that producer prices fell by .2% in April, but were up by more than 1% year on year. In France, producer prices remained planted in April but managed to be up by more than .5% on an annualized basis. All of this economic data only works to intensify the public’s outcry for some sort of monetary stimulus to be implemented in order to stave off deflation. As it stands, most are anticipating that the European Central Bank will announce some sort of new monetary stimulus measure at their June policy meeting.

In other news from around the world, the central bank of China has called for smaller banks to increase their loan-lending to those who are looking to purchase their first home. The housing market in China has not been doing well as of late and this is another attempt by the central bank to push the market forward.

Finally, the US’ producer price index was up by more than half a percentage point in April and has, in turn, caused the US Dollar to take a bit of a dive. The greenback losing some value in the early day’s proceedings has so far helped precious metals make the gains we are witnessing currently. It will be interesting to see if spot values can retain their elevated positions or if they will repeat yesterday’s price action and fall back down to earth before the end of the day.